Spring break, how about Winter…..

An area of high pressure will keep control of the area through Monday. Skies will be sunny with near record low high temperatures this weekend.  The big story that people are seeing around the news stations and online sites and blogs is that there is a storm this week.

A nor-easter looks to take aim to the region Tuesday and Wednesday with strong winds and heavy snow.  coastal flooding could be an issue Tuesday and Wednesday.

Knowns

1. storm is going to be around the area affecting the area
2.  Dominant precipitation snow but mixing south shore, cape and Islands depending on track. Wetter consistency of the snow and  southeast mass.
3. moderate coastal flooding possible

Unknowns

1. Track is yet to be ironed out best forecast right now is around Nantucket to the Benchmark
2. where does the northern stream energy and southern stream energy merge/interact
3. How the upper level low and surface low pressure interact. Does it elongate the storm into two days? (Tuesday/Wednesday)

Current Storm forecast maps

The map on left: These are the various weather models my forecasted track would send this storm just around Nantucket.   This map is older and somewhat now inaccurate but the overall is the same, the euro was showing a track much further east but has now shifted back with its ensembles. The NAM is still showing the storm tracking over southeast mass/cape and islands. Snow map and precaution/watch map still the same.There is still a chance of this storm traveling further east.

Map in the Middle. Blizzard conditions are possible in the areas under the blizzard precaution. The areas under the Blizzard precaution are also under the winter weather watch at this time. Best chance of Blizzard criteria being met is southeast mass, Eastern CT and RI. sustain winds of 35-45mph is possible in areas of southeast mass, cape and Islands with gusts up to 70mph possible over the cape and 60s across areas around and east of I95.

Map on the right is the snow map. Due to the storm being more than 2 days out,a nonnumerical snow map. Heavy snowfall in the purple possible. Best chance of this happening eastern and southern areas of this color. yellow is moderate as its further away from the storm. Black area can be moderate or heavy depending on track but due to the possibility of a wetter snow falling for a period of time.  Light to moderate snowfall across the cape and islands as mixing issues will be an issue with the current forecasted storm track.

 

will have an update tonight