Fall forecast

Detailed Forecast for the different Regions.( please take a look at the USA map under the Map of the USA icon towards the top of the page  (The Northeast is on the bottom)

Synopsis: The precipitation forecasts is much simpilar than the temperature predictions for this fall. Expect normal to above normal precipitation across the northern tier of the country especially the pacific northwest into the northern Rockies early in the season. We should see the activity increase in the lakes and northeast come November. Temperature on the other hand is less certain across the country. The large question regarding temperatures is across the pacific northwest, northern Rockies Northern Plains and Northeast United States. The question is how strong are the troughs coming down from Canada. Are they rather weak and short lived allowing for areas of high pressures to form to the south and draw warmer temperatures from the south or not. I am leaning towards a warm start but the troughs will start to win out more as the Fall season progresses even possibly early season winter weather across the lakes and Northeast.

 

Pacific Northwest:  Stormy start, Mountain snow. October:  Temperatures normal to above normal. Precipitation, above normal. November : temperatures, normal to above normal. Precipitation above normal west, near normal to below normal east. December: Temperatures above normal,  but near to above normal west. Precipitation near to above normal.

 

Pacific Southwest:  Area with highest confidence. Normal to above normal temperatures, Below normal precipitation throughout the fall season

Desert Southwest: Starting below to near normal October, then above average temperatures. normal to below normal precipitation.

Rockies:   Above normal temperatures throughout fall. October. normal to above normal precipitation north, below to near normal south and east. above normal temperatures   November Near normal precipitation, above normal temperatures  December near normal to above normal precipitation north. Near to below normal south.

 

Plains:  Near normal to below normal precipitation. Most precipitation activity to the northern plains where near normal precipitation. Temperatures. October Above normal temperatures but near normal to above southern plains. November Above normal temperatures but near to above normal temperatures northern plains. December. Above normal temperatures southern and central plains. below to near normal temperatures northern plains with coolest areas to the east.

Southeast:  Above normal temperatures below normal precipitation throughout fall.

Ohio Valley:  Warm start then temperatures near normal. Precipitation around normal.

Great Lakes.  Warm then cool, Early season lake effect snow November and December.  Precipitation normal to above normal especially November. Temperatures normal to above average October, then normal to below normal November and December

Mid-Atlantic:  Temperatures near to above normal. Precipitation normal to above normal October, as the tropics remain rather active then below average November and December

Northeast:  Dry conditions look to continue with below normal precipitation espected but acitivy should increase as the fall progresses. Temperatures will be variable to start out the Fall season with normal to above normal temperatures in October with near normal temperatures in November and normal to below normal temperatures in December. We could see early season winter weather, especially in the usual cooler locations.

Remember when you see above, near normal or below normal its referring to averages over that time period, having above normal temperatures does not mean you will not see any period of time below normal. In contrary this fall could see many seeing cooler than average temperatures but for short periods of time especially the Northern Tier of the country.

ENSO: looks to be near Neutral to Negative (greater than -0.5 which could mean a weak La-Nina formation.  currently the ENSO is at -.80. Also another factor is looking at the SSTs (sea surface temperature) off the west coast which will be continued to be monitored. It is almost October in which many start to turn their heads to Asia to look at how quickly the snow cover happens which could help determine how good our winter is. Which is  one of the many reasons why winter forecasts should wait until after October.  My winter forecast will likely come out the weekend after Thanksgiving.  The three month updates will continue as they have been.  Next three month outlook will be posted at the end of October.