Increasing likely hood of a winter storm Sunday late afternoon through Monday

There is still uncertainty on the exact track which will determine who sees the heaviest of the snowfall, but an inside runner or an out to sea scenario has decreased significantly.  We see the general track (picture on the left) that it goes within or on the benchmark. Some travel over the cape and Islands while others go up around the benchmark. The closer it is, the more rain/sleet gets involved in eastern sections. Being south of Nantucket and out means more snow across eastern sections. All the models show some mixing south and east of Boston.

I have gotten to the amount of confidence needed to post a winter weather watch , which is where I believe is the area with the best chance of seeing a level 3 or greater snowfall (on the snowfall scale) this includes all of Ct, northern RI most of massachusetts, Vt, NH and Maine.

There is a bit of uncertainty for areas in southeast mass , southern RI and extreme southeast CT seeing a level 3 event, but there is a chance of a level 2 snowfall.

Timing.

Sunday night- through Monday early afternoon

snowfall. we are still outside of the 3 day limit of the snow scale map. as much can change.  A shift west, more rain/mixing issues, with more snow inland, further east, brings the snow further east.

Forecast:

Tonight. Mostly cloudy lows in the mid to upper 30s

Friday. Mostly cloudy, highs in the 50s , chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday night.  Clear,  lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s.

Saturday and Saturday night  Sunny, highs in the 30s, lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s.

Sunday. Increasing clouds, chance of snow in the afternoon, snow likely late. Highs in the 30s.

Sunday night. Snow Likely, lows in the 20s. Breezy.

Monday. snow likely through early afternoon, then a chance of snow .highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Monday night. decreasing clouds. lows in the upper 10s to low 20s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night sunny, highs in the 30s. Lows in the 20s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night. Mostly to partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows in the 30s.

Thursday.  cloudy, chance of showers.

Again with the storm Sunday late afternoon through Monday afternoon, There is still time for things to change, all the way up to Sunday, Just at this time, there is good support for a moderate to heavy snowfall for parts of the area.