The winter season is right around the corner, you might not know it as it feels like its October as of late. The two things in a winter forecast that most look at is temperature and how good or how bad depending on your view point is the snow going to be. If one piece does not happen as planned an entire seasonal forecast can be ruined. So here is my crack at the winter forecast for the 2015/2016 season.
From south to north and west to east. In the southern plains and gulf states I am predicting below normal temperatures. The rest of the southern tier of country will experience slightly below normal temperatures. The northern tier of the country will be above average temperatures. The areas that are not under any color can be on either side of average to average temperatures. More on this in the forecast for the northeast on the bottom.
Precipitation:
From south to north and west to east.
The south will see above average precipitation. Do to El- nino we will see an active southern jet stream. The storm strack in the blue and brown will be active all season giving rain, snow, and ice to the south. This will also help the pacific southwest who are dealing with drought. The north will see a storm track that will be active for the first half of winter but will decrease in activity as we head towards spring. The north will be drier than normal worsening the drought in the northwest. The northeast will see two storm tracks. the storm track in red will be active through out the season, but a storm track that leads to the large ocean storms most years could become active the second half depending on the NAO going negative or not.
Now the most important and what most people want to see, the snow forecast.
Remember above average and below average is relative to the areas average, not that they will have more than others.
from south to north. west to east.
The pacific southwest will see above average snowfall, there will be much needed mountain snowfall in the areas shaded in black. Due to the cooler temperatures in the southern plains there could be above average snowfall and increased ice events across the area. The gulf will see increased rainfall as well as increased threats of severe weather.
The northern half of the country. The area in yellow will end below normal snowfall.
Unlike the last few years, the great lake snow machine will not be as powerful. Below normal snowfall for the great lakes especially western great lakes. The areas not shaded by color can be average or up in the air regions as it could be below or above.
Northeast United states detailed forecast
We will not be seeing a winter like last season but there could be some similarities.
The temperatures will be above average for the first half of winter (through December) We will see below normal snowfall and precipitation will be below normal as well. The main storm track will make the low pressure systems travel west of the region, putting us on the warmer side of storm systems. There will be periods of cool shots but generally it will be on the warm side. This storm track will remain relatively active for the season but may give way to an off shore storm track(yellow) that can lead to large winter storms. We only need a few big ones to get above average. Best shot of seeing some large winter storms will be January and February. A recent idea that has been put forth is that if we have a warm November we will see below average snowfall, lets see if that happens this winter. Though another is that the ramp up in Siberian snowfall means a colder winter as this is related to the negative AO ( negative Arctic Oscillation) which means the polar jet stream becomes weak and moves south. Though this year we also have a strong el-Nino, so we will have to see what wins out. I am thinking the negative AO wins out sometime this winter.
Prediction snow numbers for cities in southern)new England in Inches
City snowfall prediction Average
Boston: 36.2 43.8
Worcester 56.4 64.1
Providence 20.5 33.8
Hartford 38.4 40.5
Lowell 48.6 51.9
Concord NH 58 60.8
Portland 78.4 83.8
Merrimack valley weather 