severe weather but how far east and north.

Yes there will be severe weather in areas of southern new england this late afternoon and over night. the question is how far can the severe weather travel when the sun goes down.  A tornado watch has been issued the the national weather service for berkshire county. A severe thunderstorm watch for  Franklin,  Hapden and hampshire counties. the rest of  mass and rode Island is under a flash flood watch the exception is the cape and islands where it has been cloudy all day with highs only in the low to middle 70s

I was skeptical of a wide spread severe weather out break  across the entire region because of the thich cloud cover but that has burned away but I am still a little skeptical of  really bad severe storms reaching the coastal plain. For the following reasons

1. All of this morning most of eastern mass was blanketed with clouds parts of northeast mass did not see sun until 1 or 2 pm the hight of day time heating. the cape still has clouds and have not gotten out of the middle 70s

2 once the storms do get here the sun will be setting or already set.

3 possible wind shear

the reasons why I still say there will be severe weather but not as bad as areas to the west are:

1 convection

2 humidity

3 the amount of sun this late afternoon across parts of eastern mass has warmed up the atmosphere enough

4 storms that fire up across western sections might get strong enough to still have a puch to it when it does come over.

the time line for the second round of showers and thunderstorms ( this afternoon and over night)

from 6pm -midnight  for areas west of fitchburg and worcester showers and thunderstorms will over spread the area.

9pm or later for the eastern half

the chance of severe thunderstorms will exist through friday night do not rule out severe weather once so ever  I am giving

giving the Berkshires and western ct  a 4 for this evening , a 3 for areas between worcester to fitchburg to greenfield to spring field down through central and eastern ct. and a 2 for the rest of massachusetts but a 1 for the  cape and islands.

1 no severe activity expected. 20% or less chance of severe activity

2 isolated  chance of severe activity 20-40%

3 scattered severe  chance of severe activity 40%-60%

4 wide spread severe weather + likly hood of severe activity 60% ,possible tornado

5 : severe thunderstorms capable of tornadic activity(super cells). 80% severe activity